MEMPHIS, TN (WMC) - Let’s challenge it, girlfriend look in ~ the an initial Alert 7-Day forecast and see rain percentages on part days, or during the summer every day, but when you traverse with the day, you finish up not seeing any kind of rain. You might think, what gives?

Well in this illustration of the Breakdown, we space going to define what a rain percent on our first Alert weather graphics important means.

You are watching: What does 70 chance of rain mean

Let’s start off through talking around the confusion. The hatchet most people think about is “There’s a 70 percent readjust of rain,” which thinking things out leads civilization to think yes a 70 percent opportunity that that is going to rain on them throughout the day, yet in truth that thought process is no correct.

The truth of the issue is the truth that Probability that Precipitation or (PoP) requirements to be understood.

The WMC action News 5 very first Alert Weather team consist of 27 counties in 3 states, for this reason this PoP we talk around is relenten is the possibility of rain at any allude over our viewing area.

Lets speak PoPs(WMC activity News 5)

Here is how the nationwide Weather company breakdowns the math: “PoP = C x A whereby “C” = the confidence the precipitation will occur somewhere in the estimate area, and where “A” = the percent that the area that will receive measurable precipitation, if it occurs at all.”

So, the first Alert Weather team will certainly use various forecast models to identify the chances that rain will occur somewhere in our viewing area and then decide exactly how much rain the area is likely to get.

This is a huge area! us cover native Batesville, Mississippi to Blytheville, Arkansas. Indigenous Dyersburg, Tennessee to Clarksdale, Mississippi. From Corinth, Mississippi come Forrest City, Arkansas, and also from Memphis, Tennessee come Oxford, Mississippi. This is quite a distance as you can see from our viewing area map.

WMC-TV 5 Coverage Area

This way if we were 100 percent certain it would rain in our southern counties, climate a 100 percent particular it would certainly rain in our west counties, then it would certainly be a 40 percent chance for the whole WMC action News 5 city hall area.

Which over there is some degree of suspicion as exactly how weather equipments will beat out, as nationwide Weather organization explains:

Lets talk PoPs(WMC action News 5)

“(M)ost of the time, the forecaster is to express a combination of level of confidence and areal coverage. If the forecaster is just 50% sure that precipitation will occur, and expects that, if it does occur, the will produce measurable rain over around 80 percent of the area, the pop (chance the rain) is 40%. (PoP = .5 x .8 which equals .4 or 40%.)”

We pride ourselves in ~ the an initial Alert Weather Team in providing precise and easy to know forecast so friend can plan your day.

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Learn the Lingo around PoPs(WMC action News 5)

Just keep in mind as soon as we explain a 40 percent chance of rain end the 27 counties us cover throughout the day, that means that Memphis might be dry, yet Oxford and also Clarksdale might be wet. Simply know we cover an ext than just one location and that is why we give a percentage of rain.